- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics scored from independent sources (IMF Art IV, World Bank, EBRD, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, TI) + regional independent press (Eurasianet, RFE/RL); Uzbek state outlets used only to relay externally-corroborated neutral facts, with reform claims treated as intentions, not outcomes.

- A genuine post-2016 reform opening (IMF/EBRD-validated economics, improving statistics) on a persistent authoritarian-lite base, anchored by an acute Aral Sea/water environmental burden.

- Standout features: a credible reform/opening and young demographics, against a low rights ceiling and severe water stress.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Credible reform momentum on a resource-exposed base, against elevated inflation and a managed currency. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A consolidated deficit ~3.2% GDP with moderate debt and ample reserves; SOE/bank contingent liabilities the key risk. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A managed som with a tight-policy reform attempt but limited de-facto independence - not free-floating. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The som has no external reserve role. (definitional)

Inflation - Around 10% and only marginally easing after energy-price liberalisation. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Banking Stability - State-dominated but actively privatising (EBRD-backed) - reform upside against concentration risk. (EBRD; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Gold/gas/cotton exposure but diversifying, with fast-growing non-gold exports and a WTO-accession push. (IMF; EBRD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.14 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +0.14 │ 73% │

│ long │ +0.14 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Reforming from a brutal base, but the ceiling stays low. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A judiciary that is an executive instrument, with corruption and reform-by-decree. (Freedom House 2025; V-Dem)

Statistical Integrity - Markedly improved transparency under reform; IMF-usable data. (IMF 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - Reforming and executing top-down programs competently-ish, with uneven capacity. (IMF; EBRD)

Press Freedom - RSF ~148/180, with no private TV, arrests of online critics, and routine blocking. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.90 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -1.90 │ 70% │

│ long │ -1.90 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Managed stability over genuine pluralism, with a demographic dividend the offset. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Consolidated personalist rule (a 2023 referendum reset/extended the term); orderly top-down stability, succession-fragile. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Eased from the prior era but with no legal opposition and tight controls. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A labor-exporter (millions abroad), not a relocation destination, with an authoritarian-lite ceiling. (regional press)

Social Cohesion - Orderly and managed, but the 2022 Karakalpakstan unrest is a live fracture. (HRW; Freedom House)

Demographics - Young and growing - a dividend strained by a jobs gap driving labour migration. (World Bank; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.37 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -1.37 │ 70% │

│ long │ -1.37 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pragmatic multi-vector hedger, structurally constrained by double-landlocked geography. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A multi-vector hedger (Russia/China/West), pragmatic and double-landlocked - no firm bloc. (regional analysis)

Conflict Involvement - No direct war, with Afghanistan-border exposure and trans-boundary water tensions. (Eurasianet)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned, with a reforming-but-not-fully-open capital account. (IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.67 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -0.67 │ 68% │

│ long │ -0.67 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An acute Aral Sea/water environmental burden anchors an otherwise improving picture. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 82% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - The Aral Sea catastrophe, acute water scarcity, extreme heat, dust/salinity; upstream-dependent, low readiness. (WB CCDR; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A Soviet-legacy system, improving but uneven, with a severe disease burden in the Aral region. (UNDP)

Infrastructure - Improving (EBRD-backed) but with a double-landlocked export vulnerability. (EBRD)

Crime Safety - Low-to-moderate violent crime; orderly. (general)

Disaster Insurance - Very low insurance penetration, with Tashkent seismic exposure. (seismology)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.77 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -2.0 │ 63% │

│ long │ -2.24 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.40 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.83 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.45 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.34 │ -1.37 │ -1.40 │

│ Assets │ -0.81 │ -0.83 │ -0.85 │

│ Currency │ -0.45 │ -0.45 │ -0.45 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘