- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, ECCB, Freedom House, RSF, TI, InSight Crime, ReliefWeb) + international and regional press.

- A landmark peaceful change of government (Nov 2025) ended Ralph Gonsalves' 24-year tenure - Godwin Friday's NDP won 14-1 - on the East Caribbean dollar (XCD, pegged 2.70/USD); notably one of the few CBI holdouts (no golden-passport program).

- Standout features: strong democratic resilience and the cohort's best CPI, against the highest debt burden of the OECS (~113%), a serious violent-crime problem, and repeat disasters (the 2021 La Soufriere eruption, 2024 Beryl).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Peg-anchored low inflation but the heaviest OECS debt burden and no CBI cushion. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~113% of GDP in 2025 (up ~45 ppts since 2019), 'high risk of distress' but sustainable only if consolidation is fully implemented; no CBI cushion. (IMF 2024 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An ECCB member with a credible peg and no own policy. (ECCB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The XCD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and stable under the peg, eased post-2023. (IMF)

Banking Stability - The ECCU system is liquid/well-capitalized; small-system concentration risk. (ECCB)

Trade Actions Capacity - A tiny price-taker with a faded banana legacy and a narrow base, with no leverage. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.72 │ 80% │

│ mid │ -0.72 │ 80% │

│ long │ -0.72 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The cohort's best CPI and functioning judiciary, with a cybercrime/defamation-law caveat. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A functioning judiciary - CPI score 63, rank ~32/180, the best of the cohort. (TI)

Statistical Integrity - Full IMF/ECCB engagement, with thin capacity. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Small; the new government will test continuity. (observed)

Press Freedom - 'Free' but RSF flags a 2016 cybercrime/criminal-defamation law and political media influence. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.66 │ 56% │

│ mid │ +2.66 │ 56% │

│ long │ +2.66 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Exceptional democratic resilience (a landmark 2025 alternation), against rising gun violence. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Lifted by the orderly Nov 2025 transfer (NDP 14-1, ending Gonsalves' 24-year tenure), with minor near-term transition uncertainty under new PM Friday. (Newsday; CNW)

Civil Liberties - Freedom House 2025 score 90/100, 'Free'. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systemic discrimination reported, with thin data. (lower confidence)

Social Cohesion - Generally cohesive, but rising gang/gun violence and disaster displacement strain it. (observed)

Demographics - The IMF flags a rapidly aging population as a structural headwind. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.87 │ 62% │

│ mid │ +3.87 │ 62% │

│ long │ +3.87 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

CARICOM/OECS/ALBA-tied and conflict-free, with less golden-passport exposure than peers. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - CARICOM/OECS/ALBA ties plus Taiwan-funded projects - predictable but small. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No CBI program means less golden-passport sanction exposure than peers, with standard AML/de-risking pressure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.13 │ 64% │

│ mid │ +4.13 │ 64% │

│ long │ +4.13 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Multi-hazard exposure (volcano + hurricanes) and a high homicide rate. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - 2024 Hurricane Beryl devastated Union Island/the Grenadines (~90% of structures damaged) - acute SIDS exposure. (IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Basic, with a new Taiwan-funded hospital under construction and off-island referral for serious cases. (observed)

Infrastructure - New port and hospital investments are positives; volcanic/storm-damaged areas still recovering. (IMF)

Crime Safety - ~54 homicides in 2024 (a rate among the world's highest), with a rising gang/gun culture. (InSight Crime; St Vincent Times)

Disaster Insurance - A CCRIF member, but coverage is a small fraction of losses; back-to-back disasters expose the protection gap. (CCRIF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.44 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -3.69 │ 64% │

│ long │ -3.94 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.44 │ 63% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.79 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.65 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.52 │ +1.48 │ +1.44 │

│ Assets │ +0.81 │ +0.79 │ +0.77 │

│ Currency │ +0.65 │ +0.65 │ +0.65 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘