- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/economics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF/World Bank estimates, V-Dem, RSF, TI, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, OHCHR, CPJ + Efecto Cocuyo/Armando.info); Venezuelan state media and official statistics EXCLUDED there.

- Scored on corroborated facts: the July-2024 election widely regarded as stolen (the opposition broadly seen to have won), intensified repression, a ~7.9M migrant exodus, oil-output collapse, and heavy sanctions. Maduro was captured by US forces in January 2026 - the post-Maduro transition is now the dominant uncertainty (a chaotic Chavista/military holdover vs an opposition opening), treated as a fat tail, not a settled outcome.

- Standout drags: a collapsed economy, a hollowed repressive state, a humanitarian-scale exodus, and degraded healthcare/infrastructure - now compounded by an abrupt, unresolved leadership vacuum. Overall outcome distribution: negative with a wide two-sided tail.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A collapsed, defaulted oil-rentier with a hyperinflation legacy and a catastrophic resource-curse output collapse. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -6.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -5.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 62% │ -4.0 │ -2.50 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A modest financing positive amid the disaster: the IMF confirmed July 9 that Georgieva and Rodriguez discussed Venezuela tapping ~$4.2B in unused SDRs plus a ~$650M RFI tranche for reconstruction - re-engagement after years shut out - but reconstruction needs dwarf it (bne IntelliNews, IMF - independent/multilateral). Held near -8 / long -4; confidence held.

Monetary Independence - A hyperinflation legacy with informal dollarization-creep and zero central-bank independence. (IMF; FocusEconomics)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The bolivar is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Still extreme (the IMF projects triple-digit-plus for 2026), with monthly rates partly stabilising. (IMF)

Banking Stability - A broken, tiny, heavily dollarized credit system. (IMF; Americas Quarterly)

Trade Actions Capacity - Improved near -5 -> -4 and long -2 -> -1: the US announced a major Venezuela oil deal in the Aug 28 to Sept 3 stretch, with Chevron expanding investment past $7B over five years targeting ~600,000 bpd, and development rights across 17 fields (AP via Press Democrat, Forbes, Bloomberg). Booked as one modest step, not a reversal, because the two sweeps that found it disagree on the counterparty structure and because Venezuela's National Assembly has not ratified it. Concrete corporate capital commitment is scored; the headline framing is not.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.70 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.81 │ 59% │

│ long │ -3.93 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No judicial independence, unusable state data, a hollowed bureaucracy, and severe press repression. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 72% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - HELD at -9, confidence 0.8 -> 0.82: the oil deal's own legitimacy is contested because the National Assembly has not approved it, and Maduro and Cilia Flores asked a New York federal court on Sept 3 to dismiss drug-trafficking charges on presidential-immunity grounds. Resource concessions signed without domestic ratification are the same rule-of-law defect as the confiscations they replace, so the economic improvement does not read across to institutions.

Statistical Integrity - Held at -7 with confidence up 0.7 -> 0.72: the Rodriguez government's Aug 3 quake toll of 6,125 dead (73,300 hospitalized, tens of thousands missing) is a state figure diverging sharply from USGS PAGER's independent >10,000 projection, with a Swiss rescue-team assessment that most missing are dead - the undercount pattern persists under the post-Maduro government. Independent NGOs corroborate scale of need, not the count. (A recirculated 'Maduro mobilizes 4.5M militia' item from Sept 2025 - pre-dating his Jan 3 capture - was caught and excluded.)

Civil Service Capacity - The interim government must manage a mass-casualty disaster response amid its own legitimacy crisis - severe state-capacity strain (UN News, independent trackers). Worsened -6 -> -7; confidence up.

Press Freedom - RSF ~160/180, with hundreds of outlets closed, blocked sites, and jailed journalists. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are the load-bearing pillar of the government. Officers hold ministries and control major state enterprises including oil logistics and food distribution. That makes the command structure a direct economic stakeholder in regime continuity. Promotion is a loyalty transaction. Counter-intelligence surveillance of the officer corps is a standing feature.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.87 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -7.87 │ 60% │

│ long │ -7.87 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stolen-election legitimacy crisis, severe repression, and a humanitarian-scale exodus. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 50% │ -8.0 │ -6.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -5.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Improved near -9 -> -8: the first round of US-brokered government-opposition talks completed (Aug 6-12), 131 political prisoners were freed by Aug 15 (release scenes at El Rodeo I Aug 14; Al Jazeera + CRS corroborate), and the transition process continued under acting president Delcy Rodriguez, though no election date exists for 'phase three' and the Rodriguez-Cabello internal struggle is live. Confidence held low at 0.5: fluid, reversible, and earthquake-toll data remains state-channel.

Civil Liberties - Improved near -7 -> -6: 131 releases are verified and material, with 391 political prisoners still held (as of Aug 10 count) and a bipartisan US Senate resolution pressing for more. Direction real, level still repressive.

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a destination - around 7.9M have fled (~a quarter of the population), with minimal protection for the few migrants. (UNHCR/IOM)

Social Cohesion - The June-24 twin-quake toll rose ~718 within this window alone, passing 5,200 dead (5,208 per the July-19 official tally) / 16,740 injured, with 107 transitional camps housing 23,820+ displaced; the UN estimates up to 68,000 missing and 6.7M affected and USGS models a 42% chance the eventual toll lands 10,000-100,000 (CNN en Espanol, La Patilla, Infobae - independent relaying state figures, direction; UN estimate - multilateral). Now the deadliest earthquake in modern Venezuelan history: held at -7; confidence up on the converged independent trajectory.

Demographics - Distorted by the emigration of the young and educated. (IOM)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.32 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -5.68 │ 57% │

│ long │ -5.05 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Isolated and heavily sanctioned, with a territorial dispute escalating. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 72% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Aligned with Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran and heavily sanctioned - isolated and unreliable. (CFR)

Conflict Involvement - May 29 cross-border fire on a Guyanese patrol from the Venezuelan side during ICJ Essequibo proceedings sustains a confrontation posture (WaPo, ICG). Score held at -6; noted.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Improved -5 -> -4 near-term channel: government and opposition are negotiating to move roughly $4B in gold from the Bank of England to the NY Fed (Reuters, Sept 18), which would unlock frozen reserves if completed. Maduro's Sept 3 immunity motion and 530% inflation (Reuters, Sept 18) remain constraints. Deal is not final; confidence held 0.72.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.11 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -4.75 │ 56% │

│ long │ -4.12 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A collapsed health system, degraded infrastructure, and high crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Andean glacier loss (the last glacier gone 2024) plus collapsed institutional readiness plus flood/landslide exposure. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - A collapsed public system with disease resurgence and a doctor exodus. (IOM)

Infrastructure - Chronic blackouts, water failures, and a degraded grid. (IOM; ACAPS)

Crime Safety - High (though down from a catastrophic peak as crime was partly 'exported' with migration). (independent observatories)

Disaster Insurance - Held at -7 with confidence up: Swiss Re's H1 2026 sigma preliminary (Aug 11) names the June Venezuela earthquakes among the half-year's principal loss drivers within a global $100B economic toll - independent, industry-standard corroboration of catastrophic uninsured exposure (insured share globally 42%; Venezuela's is far lower).

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.03 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -7.23 │ 59% │

│ long │ -7.44 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -6.20 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.91 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -6.08 │ 59% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -6.83 │ -6.52 │ -6.20 │

│ Assets │ -6.36 │ -5.91 │ -5.42 │

│ Currency │ -6.08 │ -5.47 │ -4.81 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘