- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ADB, Freedom House, RSF, Lowy, WorldRiskIndex) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- The world's single most disaster-exposed country (WorldRiskIndex #1), compounded by the deadly M7.3 Dec 2024 Port Vila earthquake on top of the 2023 twin cyclones.

- Standout drags: extreme/correlated disaster exposure, a structurally impaired 'golden passport' revenue base (EU visa-free access revoked Dec 2024), and chronic-though-newly-curbed political churn; offsets are a broadly free, cohesive society.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A fragile, aid-reliant subsistence base with an impaired citizenship-revenue pillar and quake-rebuild deficits. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -4.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit widening to ~5% of GDP in 2025 on quake rebuild plus falling citizenship revenue; donor grants cushion but the base is fragile. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - The Reserve Bank of Vanuatu manages the vatu against an undisclosed basket - limited but real autonomy with thin instruments. (IMF; RBV)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The vatu is not a reserve currency; reserves are adequate but on a downward trajectory. (definitional; IMF 2025)

Inflation - Easing toward target after post-shock spikes, with small-economy import-price volatility. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - Commercial banks reportedly well-capitalized/liquid, but a small, partly-offshore system with thin supervisory data. (RBV; ADB)

Trade Actions Capacity - A tiny, undiversified subsistence/copra/kava/tourism economy, structurally import-dependent and aid-reliant. (World Bank; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.04 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -1.92 │ 72% │

│ long │ -1.80 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A largely independent judiciary against land-deal corruption, with a stretched bureaucracy and free-ish press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A largely independent judiciary has jailed officials, but land-deal corruption and abuse of office are serious. (Freedom House 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - A functioning but capacity-thin statistics office reliant on donor support. (IMF; World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - A small, stretched bureaucracy strained by serial government turnover and recurrent disaster response. (Freedom House 2025)

Press Freedom - A generally free press, but officials have occasionally threatened journalists over critical coverage. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.70 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -0.70 │ 55% │

│ long │ -0.70 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Chronic churn now curbed by reform, over a broadly free and cohesive kastom society. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Historically among the Pacific's most unstable, but the 2023/24 anti-floor-crossing reform has held (Napat survived a Dec 2025 no-confidence motion 36-12). (RFA; ConstitutionNet)

Civil Liberties - Broadly respected speech, assembly, and religion in a functioning democracy. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a major migration destination; the CBI gives easy citizenship-access but no notable mistreatment record. (inference; Freedom House 2025)

Social Cohesion - A largely cohesive ni-Vanuatu society with strong customary/kastom structures and localized land/inter-island tensions. (Freedom House 2025)

Demographics - Young and growing - a potential dividend but a jobs/services burden amid skilled out-migration. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.85 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +1.14 │ 58% │

│ long │ +1.43 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Non-aligned and hedging Australia against China, with AML scrutiny on the citizenship scheme. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned, playing Australia (top donor) against China (expanded police/grant ties) - pragmatic hedging carries some leverage. (Lowy Pacific Aid Map 2025)

Conflict Involvement - No military conflict; far from any war theatre. (inference; Lowy)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned, but the CBI scheme draws AML scrutiny (EU action; an FATF re-evaluation due 2026) - reputational/de-risking exposure. (EU Council 2024; FATF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.74 │ 62% │

│ mid │ +1.74 │ 62% │

│ long │ +1.74 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The world's #1 disaster-risk profile, with weak health/infrastructure and near-zero catastrophe insurance. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 82% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - The WorldRiskIndex #1 disaster-risk country (TC Pam 2015, Harold, twin-2023 cyclones) - extreme cyclone/SLR/volcanic exposure, low adaptive capacity. (WorldRiskIndex)

Healthcare - A weak system with a high NCD burden and thin specialist care, reliant on overseas referral. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Poor roads/grid/water outside Port Vila, worsened by the Dec 2024 quake and the 2024 Air Vanuatu collapse. (IMF 2025; UNDP)

Crime Safety - Generally low violent crime, with petty theft and post-disaster strain. (inference; Freedom House 2025)

Disaster Insurance - The world's #1 disaster-risk country with negligible catastrophe-insurance penetration - existential exposure. (WorldRiskIndex; inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.05 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -5.28 │ 71% │

│ long │ -5.51 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.0 │ 61% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.23 │ 65% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.16 │ 67% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.13 │ -1.07 │ -1.0 │

│ Assets │ -1.28 │ -1.23 │ -1.17 │

│ Currency │ -1.16 │ -1.07 │ -0.98 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘