- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ADB, Freedom House, RSF, TI, Lowy, WHO) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- The Pacific's strongest peaceful-transfer track record under stress - it survived the tense 2021 HRPP-ending transfer and a 2025 mid-term crisis (a FAST split, a budget defeat, an Aug 2025 snap election) entirely through legal/electoral channels.

- Standout features: the best regional macro story (debt ~27.7% of GDP, a moderate distress rating, inflation near target) and strong social cohesion, against a real press-freedom slide, a crushing NCD burden, and cyclone/tsunami exposure.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

The best regional balance sheet (low debt, near-target inflation), on a tiny remittance-dependent base. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt ~27.7% of GDP (a 20-year low), upgraded high-to-moderate distress - strong but structurally aid/remittance-dependent. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - The Central Bank of Samoa manages the tala against a basket - limited autonomy, modest toolkit. (IMF; CBS)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The tala is not a reserve currency; FX reserves are comfortably above the optimal level. (definitional; IMF 2025)

Inflation - Down from double digits (FY23) to ~2.9% y/y, stabilizing near the 3% target. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - A small, shallow system - adequate but with thin supervisory data. (IMF; ADB)

Trade Actions Capacity - A narrow export base (fish, agriculture, tourism), import-dependent, with ~30%-of-GDP remittances; open and undiversified. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.46 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +0.22 │ 69% │

│ long │ -0.02 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible courts and comparatively low corruption, against a clear press-freedom deterioration. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Courts adjudicated the 2021 crisis and 2025 disputes credibly; corruption is comparatively low, with periodic executive-judiciary friction. (Freedom House 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - A functioning Bureau of Statistics with donor support and standard small-state capacity limits. (IMF; SBS)

Civil Service Capacity - Reasonable for its size with relatively strong service delivery, but small and stretched. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - RSF rank slid 22-to-44 (2024-25) on 'authoritarian pressure' and online death threats against journalists - a clear deterioration. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.57 │ 57% │

│ mid │ +0.57 │ 57% │

│ long │ +0.57 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A turbulent-but-durably-democratic, highly cohesive matai society. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A genuine 2025 crisis (FAST split, budget defeat, a snap poll) resolved peacefully and constitutionally - turbulent but durably democratic. (Wikipedia 2025 election; RNZ)

Civil Liberties - Broadly respected freedoms, with the matai-only candidacy rule and recent journalist harassment as caveats. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a major migration destination, with no notable mistreatment record. (inference)

Social Cohesion - A cohesive, ethnically homogeneous (~96% Samoan) society organized around communal matai governance, with conflicts settled non-violently. (CIVICUS; World Bank)

Demographics - Slow growth with persistent net out-migration to NZ/Australia/US - remittance-positive but a long-run workforce drag. (World Bank; SBS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.18 │ 63% │

│ mid │ +2.13 │ 63% │

│ long │ +2.08 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong NZ/Australia ties with China engagement, non-aligned and conflict-free. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Strong NZ/Australia ties plus engagement with China; hosted CHOGM 2024 - non-aligned and pragmatic. (Lowy 2025)

Conflict Involvement - No military conflict; remote from any war theatre. (inference)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open, unsanctioned economy; legacy Chinese project debt is a fiscal not a sanctions issue. (IMF; Lowy 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.76 │ 65% │

│ mid │ +2.76 │ 65% │

│ long │ +2.76 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Relatively better regional infrastructure, against a crushing NCD burden and cyclone/tsunami exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 74% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Cyclone/SLR/coastal-erosion exposure (and the 2009 tsunami) concentrated on the low coastal strip where most live. (WB Pacific CCDR)

Healthcare - A severe NCD burden (NCDs ~83% of 2021 deaths, ~58% female obesity) and the 2019 measles legacy, with improving World-Bank-supported primary care. (WHO; World Bank 2025)

Infrastructure - Relatively better than regional peers, boosted by CHOGM-related investment, but small and disaster-vulnerable. (IMF 2025; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Generally low violent crime, with petty crime present. (inference; Freedom House 2025)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible catastrophe-insurance penetration against real cyclone/tsunami exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.50 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -3.72 │ 68% │

│ long │ -3.94 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.30 │ 63% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.45 │ 65% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.90 │ 66% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.49 │ +0.40 │ +0.30 │

│ Assets │ +0.58 │ +0.45 │ +0.32 │

│ Currency │ +0.90 │ +0.74 │ +0.59 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘