- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-21): discovery-first sweep since the 2026-07-20 pass (tight 1-day window; most scores held), triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press, run largely on the self-hosted lab search after the metered cap was exhausted, with the two highest-impact items hand-verified. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war deepened a second day - a 10th consecutive night of US strikes, the two Jordan-base US fatalities identified (toll ~17), Iran hitting Kuwait's power/desalination plant a 4th straight day (water rationing in 50C heat) and striking a Kuwaiti-flagged tanker in Hormuz, and the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia moving from declaration to ENFORCEMENT (Saudi tankers bound for China/India U-turned, refiners rerouting via Suez) - BUT the positive-skew exit appeared, as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran, so Iran's conflict score holds off the floor. Brent topped $90. Elsewhere: a US federal judge ordered the DC National Guard deployment ENDED, reversing the 2029 pre-commitment (US rule_of_law eased, appeal pending), while Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (US + Canada trade worsened); Ukraine saw a 5th day of rare wartime protests over Defense Minister Fedorov's dismissal (political_stability down); Moldova's parliament approved the Tofan government (vacancy resolved); the UK's new PM sacked his chancellor and gilt yields hit a 2-month high (fiscal down); DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 930 deaths with health workers striking (healthcare to the floor). CORRECTION: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' item flagged last pass was misdated 2025 coverage - the real in-window state is a diplomatic stalemate, not combat, and is not scored. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: rebuilt from independent sources (UN/World Bank estimates, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, ACLED, UN OCHA/IPC, IOM, OFAC); neither the Houthi nor the recognized-government output used on governance/rights/economics.

- De-facto partitioned (a Houthi-controlled north vs the internationally-recognized government/PLC south) with a collapsed, split currency and no unified central bank. Data is fragmentary; confidence is low and figures are external proxies.

- Standout drags: an active/frozen civil war, one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, a collapsed split economy, and Houthi Red Sea/Israel attacks drawing strikes. Overall: clearly negative.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A collapsed, split, aid-dependent economy with a fractured currency. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 50% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 50% │ -8.0 │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Collapsed and split between two rival fiscal authorities, ~80% aid-dependent, the world's largest humanitarian appeal. (World Bank; UN OCHA)

Monetary Independence - No unified central bank; the rial collapsed and split into divergent zone exchange rates. (World Bank; ACAPS)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Very high, severe in the government-held south where the rial collapsed. (World Bank; ACAPS)

Banking Stability - Broken and split, with Houthi-area banks sanctioned and SWIFT-cut. (IMF; OFAC)

Trade Actions Capacity - Oil exports halted since 2022 by drone threats, Red-Sea-blockade dynamics, and import dependence. (World Bank; ACLED)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.93 │ 54% │

│ mid │ -6.77 │ 54% │

│ long │ -6.62 │ 54% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No functional unified state, collapsed data, and among the worst press repression. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - No functional unified state - a theocratic-authoritarian north versus a fractured southern coalition. (V-Dem; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Collapsed and largely absent - external proxies only. (World Bank caveats)

Civil Service Capacity - Collapsed and split, with salaries unpaid for years. (UN OCHA; World Bank)

Press Freedom - Near the RSF bottom, with journalists detained or disappeared by all sides. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - No effective state monopoly on the use of force. Armed factions, militias, or rival command structures operate outside any single chain of command. Civilian control is absent here as a category.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -8.48 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -8.48 │ 55% │

│ long │ -8.48 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fragmented civil war and a famine-adjacent humanitarian catastrophe. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 45% │ -9.0 │ -7.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A fragmented, frozen civil war under a fragile UN truce, with de-facto partition and no settlement. (UN; ICG)

Civil Liberties - Severe Houthi repression and escalating gender restrictions, catastrophic in conflict zones. (HRW; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - A war state that nonetheless hosts and transits African migrants facing abuse. (IOM; HRW)

Social Cohesion - Shattered along north-south, sectarian (Zaydi/Sunni), and tribal lines. (ICG; ACLED)

Demographics - Very young and high-fertility, but with a famine/malnutrition catastrophe. (UN; IPC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.57 │ 53% │

│ mid │ -7.19 │ 53% │

│ long │ -6.80 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A regional-proxy battleground, with Houthi Red Sea/Israel attacks drawing strikes. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -10.0 │ -8.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A proxy battleground - the Houthis Iran-aligned, the government Saudi/UAE-backed. (CFR; ICG)

Conflict Involvement - HELD near -10 and long -7: the internal war intensified on its own track, separate from the Red Sea campaign. Houthi forces clashed with government forces in the southwest attempting to advance through western Taiz and southern Hodeidah toward al-Makha and Bab al-Mandeb (Sept 3), a Houthi missile strike killed at least four civilians on a crowded road south of Taiz (Sept 5), and government forces launched fresh air strikes on Houthi positions (Sept 7), with Al Jazeera assessing on Sept 6 that recent government territorial gains are not yet decisive. Four dated reports across the window from one independent chain; movement in both directions with no decisive shift, so both horizons hold. Confidence 0.78 -> 0.8.

Sanctions Capital Controls - The Houthis US-designated and sanctioned - isolated with capital controls. (OFAC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -8.39 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -7.47 │ 56% │

│ long │ -6.55 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A collapsed health system amid famine, war-destroyed infrastructure, and extreme water scarcity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.50 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 40% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Climate - Acute water depletion, extreme heat, flood, with readiness collapsed by war/famine - near-existential adaptive failure. (WB; IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Collapsed, with recurrent cholera and famine-adjacent malnutrition - among the world's worst. (WHO; UN OCHA; IPC)

Infrastructure - Worsened -9 -> -10: the Taiz to Mocha road is the government's coastal lifeline and is now the explicit objective of a Houthi offensive (Al Jazeera, Sept 3). Losing it severs the last non-Houthi supply corridor to the Red Sea.

Crime Safety - War zones, landmines, lawlessness, and kidnapping. (ACLED; UN)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration. (hazard context)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -9.0 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -9.11 │ 56% │

│ long │ -9.21 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -7.73 │ 54% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -7.59 │ 55% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -7.50 │ 55% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -8.06 │ -7.89 │ -7.73 │

│ Assets │ -7.82 │ -7.59 │ -7.36 │

│ Currency │ -7.50 │ -7.24 │ -6.99 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘