- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, WJP, RSF) + South African official (Stats SA, SARB, Eskom, SAPS, Treasury) + South African independent press (Daily Maverick, News24, Bhekisisa, GroundUp).

- Strengths cluster in institutions: a credible independent central bank, an assertive judiciary, respected statistics, and a free press; weaknesses cluster in delivery and security.

- Standout drags: a deteriorating fiscal path, very high violent crime, extreme inequality and unemployment, and a hollowed civil service. Source-lean: HIGH but low-distortion Anglophone (domestic discourse is in English).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A credible central bank and sound, sophisticated banks, against a deteriorating fiscal path and low growth. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~77% GDP rising (IMF projects ~81% by 2028), persistent deficits, SOE/Eskom contingent liabilities, and only ~1.3-1.8% growth. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The SARB is genuinely credible and independent (it adopted a lower 3% target and is willing to hike) - a real strength. (SARB; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The rand is a free-floating non-reserve currency, notably volatile. (definitional)

Inflation - Averaging ~3.2% within the band, well-managed. (IMF; SARB)

Banking Stability - A sophisticated, well-regulated, sound banking sector with deep capital markets - a durable strength. (IMF FSAP)

Trade Actions Capacity - Mining (gold/platinum/coal) plus autos with commodity-cycle exposure and acute US-trade/AGOA risk, partly offset by institutional diversification. (ISS Africa; tralac)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.27 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +1.27 │ 85% │

│ long │ +1.27 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An independent judiciary, respected statistics, and a free press, dragged by a state-capture-hollowed civil service. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An independent, assertive judiciary (state-capture accountability) is a genuine strength, dragged by weak prosecution and enforcement. (WJP 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Stats SA is credible, transparent, and internationally respected. (Stats SA; IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Hollowed by state capture, with weak service delivery and municipal/SOE dysfunction. (IMF; OECD)

Press Freedom - A free, robust independent press; RSF rates it 'satisfactory.' (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.84 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +2.84 │ 78% │

│ long │ +2.84 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong constitutional protections, against extreme inequality, unemployment, and coalition fragility. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 82% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 78% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2024 unity-government coalition (the long-dominant party lost its majority) that functions but is tense, having survived budget standoffs; 2026 local elections a test. (News24; tralac)

Civil Liberties - Strong constitutional protections, an active Constitutional Court, and robust civil society. (V-Dem; WJP)

Treatment Non Citizens - Worsened -4 -> -6: teargas and rubber bullets were used against migrants camped at Durban's Che Guevara Road on Sept 3, with further anti-foreigner protest violence and Congolese nationals reported injured (TimesLive). The UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination separately raised formal concern about rising anti-migrant violence and xenophobic attacks in South Africa. State force used against migrant encampments plus a standing multilateral finding is a two-step move.

Social Cohesion - Worsened -6 -> -7: fresh xenophobic attacks killed two Nigerians Sept 12; Nigeria's National Assembly suspended official visits to South Africa and Ghana evacuated 1,964 nationals (Sahara Reporters, Joy Online, Sept 12). UNISA academics condemned the wave. Confidence 0.75 -> 0.78.

Demographics - A relatively young population, weighed by a heavy HIV legacy and disease burden. (Stats SA; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.24 │ 77% │

│ mid │ -1.24 │ 77% │

│ long │ -1.24 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned BRICS member with no external war, but significant 2025 friction with the US. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned and a BRICS member, with significant 2025 US friction (an aid halt, a 30% tariff, an expropriation row) - unpredictable Western reliability. (CNN; SA press)

Conflict Involvement - No external war; the main risk is internal unrest (the 2021 riots a precedent). (ISS Africa)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An exchange-control legacy, substantially liberalised, with modernisation ongoing. (SARB; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.73 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +0.73 │ 69% │

│ long │ +0.73 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functional insurance market, against very high violent crime, two-tier healthcare, and fragile infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - The highest-readiness state in sub-Saharan Africa - severe drought (Cape Town 'Day Zero')/water stress, but real adaptive capacity. (ND-GAIN; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Deeply two-tier (a strong private sector versus a strained public one), with a contested NHI rollout and a high disease burden. (Bhekisisa; SAMJ)

Infrastructure - The grid keeps healing: Eskom removed 1.1M+ customers from load reduction July 9, declared five provinces fully cut-free, and targets national elimination by March 2027, extending a 413-day load-shedding-free streak (Eskom statement, cross-checked against the independently tracked streak - state-entity self-report flagged, corroborated). Improved -2 -> -1; confidence held.

Crime Safety - Very high violent crime, with a homicide rate ~45/100k. (SAPS; Daily Maverick)

Disaster Insurance - A functional, sophisticated insurance market against meaningful drought/flood exposure. (industry)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.93 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -3.03 │ 74% │

│ long │ -3.12 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.41 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.93 │ 79% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.38 │ 81% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.44 │ +0.43 │ +0.41 │

│ Assets │ +0.94 │ +0.93 │ +0.92 │

│ Currency │ +1.38 │ +1.38 │ +1.38 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘