- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/ECF, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Zambian official (BoZ, ZamStats) + Zambian independent press (Lusaka Times, Diggers).

- A debt-crisis recovery (a landmark 2024 G20-Common-Framework restructuring) and a functioning democracy, against copper/drought exposure and democratic backsliding ahead of the 2026 vote.

- Standout features: a copper-led recovery, a credible disinflation, and a 2021 peaceful turnover, against a severe 2024 drought/power crisis, high poverty, and pre-election backsliding. Source-lean: HIGH but low-distortion Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A debt-crisis recovery and a credible disinflation, with copper expansion the upside and dependence the risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The AfDB brokered the world's first debt-for-energy swap: Zambia is buying back $1.36B of its 2053 private bonds using a $600M concessional loan, committing the ~$275M interest savings to power-grid investment over 15 years (Foreign Policy - independent; AfDB - multilateral). A genuine liability-management innovation that de-risks the long bond stack: near 1 -> 2; long held 3; confidence held.

Monetary Independence - A credible-ish central bank (rate cut as inflation fell) with a copper-correlated kwacha. (IMF; BoZ)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The kwacha is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~6.6% on a multi-month downswing and within target, with durability the watch-item. (BoZ)

Banking Stability - Sound-ish and recovering. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Copper-dominant (record output, an energy-transition-courted expansion plan) plus agriculture - copper-dependence but a real production-expansion upside. (Ministry of Mines; ZIPAR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.11 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +2.09 │ 74% │

│ long │ +2.07 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functioning democracy with weak-but-improving institutions and a free-ish press. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 72% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Worsened -2 -> -3: election runner-up Brian Mundubile and his running mate Makebi Zulu remain held at Mukobeko Maximum Security Prison on non-bailable treason charges as the case proceeds, coinciding with Hichilema's second-term inauguration, with international bodies reported to be working to resolve it (Lusaka Times, Sept 3 and Sept 4). The 09-03 pass booked the disputed count and the arrests; what is new is that the detention has hardened into a non-bailable capital-class prosecution of the defeated candidate. Confidence LOWERED 0.75 -> 0.72 because the reporting chain here is a domestic outlet covering its own state during a live political case, which is partially entangled.

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-engaged. (IMF; ZamStats)

Civil Service Capacity - Improving, with mixed delivery. (IMF; World Bank)

Press Freedom - Relatively free and improved, against cyber-law and harassment concerns. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.53 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +0.53 │ 67% │

│ long │ +0.53 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A peaceful-turnover democracy under pre-election backsliding strain, with high poverty. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ +0.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened near 0 -> -1: a second term taken amid a disputed count and treason questioning of the opposition leader carries contested-legitimacy risk that a clean transfer would not. Long held +2.

Civil Liberties - Worsened +1 -> 0: arrests of opposition figures and a treason investigation into the opposition leader around an election are a direct constriction of political association.

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful and regional, with significant DRC refugee-hosting. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Relatively cohesive with ethnic/regional politics, but high poverty (~60%+) and inequality. (World Bank)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing - a dividend with a jobs strain. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.21 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +0.64 │ 71% │

│ long │ +1.06 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Western-courted, China-indebted balancer in a stable position. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Western/US-courted (copper, the Lobito Corridor) and China-indebted - a pragmatic pro-Western tilt. (IMF)

Conflict Involvement - No war and stable, though bordering DRC instability. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open-ish and unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.05 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +2.05 │ 74% │

│ long │ +2.05 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A severe drought/hydropower crisis, against improving Lobito-linked transport. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - The severe 2023-24 drought crippled hydropower/agriculture (the energy-climate nexus), low readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Weak and low-spend, improving. (UNICEF; World Bank)

Infrastructure - The 2024 drought exposed hydropower over-reliance (heavy load-shedding, a solar pivot); roads/rail improving via the Lobito Corridor. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate and relatively safe. (OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against drought exposure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.65 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -2.76 │ 62% │

│ long │ -2.87 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.57 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.15 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.72 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.34 │ +0.45 │ +0.57 │

│ Assets │ +1.12 │ +1.15 │ +1.17 │

│ Currency │ +1.72 │ +1.73 │ +1.74 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘