- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, Freedom House, HRW, TI, UNICEF/OCHA, ISS) + independent press; Zimbabwean state media EXCLUDED there, with economics IMF/World-Bank-validated (not RBZ self-reports).

- A serial-currency-collapse economy (the 2024 gold-backed ZiG struggling) locked out of IMF financing by ~25 years of arrears, under entrenched ZANU-PF rule.

- Standout drags: a defaulted/arrears-locked state, serial currency collapses, a severe drought/power crisis, a collapsed health system, and ZANU-PF capture; the mineral endowment is the offset. Overall: negative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A defaulted, arrears-locked state with serial currency collapses and a mineral-but-dysfunctional base. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt assessed unsustainable, with ~25 years of arrears locking it out of IMF financing; a 2026 staff-monitored program is only a re-engagement step. (IMF reports 2025-26)

Monetary Independence - Serial currency collapses; the 2024 gold-backed ZiG has low credibility, with heavy dollarization and a parallel premium. (IMF; World Bank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency; de-facto USD-reliant. (IMF)

Inflation - Tamed to ~4% in early 2026 under tight policy, but a hyperinflation history keeps forward risk high. (IMF WEO)

Banking Stability - Fragile, dollarized, low-confidence, under domestic-arrears pressure. (Coface; World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A top-tier mineral endowment (Africa's largest lithium reserves, gold/PGM), but a 2026 raw-mineral export ban, ~90% Chinese-controlled mining, smuggling, and arrears-locking. (Al Jazeera)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.74 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.74 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.74 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

ZANU-PF capture with no judicial independence, a property-rights legacy, and a pressured press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Worsened -8 -> -9: ten new senators appointed under Constitutional Amendment No. 3 were sworn into Parliament on Sept 1 despite live court challenges to the amendment, and Mnangagwa appointed 14 judges under the amended framework on Aug 27 while a Constitutional Court challenge remained pending (News.Pindula, Nehanda Radio). Staffing both the legislature and the bench under an amendment the courts have not yet ruled on pre-empts the judicial review itself. The July booking was the amendment; this is its execution over an unresolved objection.

Statistical Integrity - Weak and politicised; usable only where IMF-reconstructed. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-driven and hollowed by brain drain. (World Bank; HRW)

Press Freedom - A 2025 association law curbing NGOs and politically-motivated journalist arrests - a regression. (HRW; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The military is the decisive political arbiter behind a civilian facade. Some states in this band seized power outright within the last decade. Elected officials govern at the army's sufferance.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.38 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.38 │ 60% │

│ long │ -6.38 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Entrenched ZANU-PF rule with a term-extension push, surging abuses, and a crushed opposition. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD at -7: the July 31 nationwide shutdown call fizzled with streets staying empty, reported as protest fatigue, and ZANU PF offered a new public justification for the amendment on Aug 28. Consolidation proceeding against a demobilized opposition is the level already scored. A 'president struggles to draw line under brutal crackdown' piece surfacing as current was verified as dated 2019-01-22 and excluded.

Civil Liberties - A fractured/crushed opposition and surging documented abuses. (V-Dem; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - An emigration source, not a destination. (inferred; UNICEF)

Social Cohesion - Shona/Ndebele and party-versus-opposition cleavages amid economic despair. (HRW; Freedom House)

Demographics - Young but with mass brain-drain emigration (especially health workers). (DevelopmentAid)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.22 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.22 │ 59% │

│ long │ -5.22 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Isolated from the West, China/Russia-leaning, and arrears-locked from finance. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Isolated from the West (targeted sanctions) with a China/Russia 'Look East' lean and Chinese mining dominance. (US sources; HRW)

Conflict Involvement - No interstate war, with repression-driven internal instability. (ISS)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Targeted Western sanctions on officials/entities, arrears-locked from finance, with export controls. (IMF; Al Jazeera)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.95 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.95 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.95 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A severe drought/power crisis and a collapsed health system, with decayed infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Recurrent drought (incl. Cyclone Idai flooding), governance-eroded readiness, rain-fed/hydropower stress. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - A collapsed public system, recurrent cholera, and a doctor exodus compounded by aid cuts. (Health Policy Watch; UNICEF)

Infrastructure - Decayed, with chronic load-shedding. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate economic-desperation crime. (inferred)

Disaster Insurance - Very low penetration against extreme drought/flood exposure. (inferred)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.89 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.99 │ 59% │

│ long │ -6.09 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.62 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.20 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -4.97 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -5.59 │ -5.61 │ -5.62 │

│ Assets │ -5.19 │ -5.20 │ -5.21 │

│ Currency │ -4.97 │ -4.97 │ -4.97 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘