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│ Nepal flash flood death toll climbs as │ │ Trump proposes 20% toll on cargo through │
│ barrier lake threatens further release │ │ Strait of Hormuz; restarts Iran blockade │
│ feature - Associated Press - │ │ feature - CNBC - independent/independent │
│ wire/independent [NPL] │ │ [IRN,USA] │
│ │ │ │
│ A glacier collapse triggered a catastrophic │ │ On July 13 Trump announced the US would │
│ flash flood on the Nepal-Tibet border from │ │ reinstate a naval blockade of Iranian ports │
│ Aug 26. The toll climbed through the window │ │ effective July 14 4pm ET and charge a 20% │
│ to 1,252 by Sept 3, surpassing the death │ │ fee on all cargo transiting Hormuz. A │
│ toll of the 2015 earthquake, with peak │ │ blockade is the far end of the isolation │
│ reported missing near 4,875 and a barrier │ │ scale: drove Iran │
│ lake still threatening release at window │ │ sanctions_capital_controls -9 to -10. │
│ close. Corroborated across CNN, Reuters, Al │ │ │
│ Jazeera, CBS, The Hindu and the NYT. │ │ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran- │
│ │ │ hormuz-strait-charge-reimburse.html │
│ https://apnews.com/article/nepal-flash-floo │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ ds-death-toll-tibet-china-835459b2978adcd2b │
│ 3bcf6e0595aee6c │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ US attacks kill 12 in Iran as Tehran │ │ UN chief warns DRC Ebola outbreak spreading │
│ strikes bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait │ │ across six provinces │
│ and Iraq │ │ feature - United Nations - │
│ feature - Helsinki Times - unknown/unknown │ │ multilateral/multilateral [COD] │
│ [IRN,JOR,BHR,KWT,IRQ] │ │ │
│ │ │ The UN Secretary-General reported 5,600+ │
│ Iran retaliated on Sept 2 against US-linked │ │ cases and 2,700 deaths across six provinces │
│ bases across four countries simultaneously: │ │ since mid-May, roughly 500 new cases a │
│ Camp Titin and Prince Hassan airbase in │ │ week, and a $1.1 billion appeal only 48% │
│ Jordan, Sheikh Isa in Bahrain, Ali al-Salem │ │ funded. DRC's National Institute of Public │
│ in Kuwait, and Erbil in Iraq. The │ │ Health later put the toll at 6,186 cases │
│ single-window widening of the war to five │ │ and 3,007 deaths at a 48.6% fatality rate │
│ territories is the structural fact scored │ │ by Sept 3. The case data originates with a │
│ here. Casualty counts on every side are │ │ state institute and is relayed by AFP, so │
│ contested between US, Iranian and │ │ the source is state and the reporting │
│ host-government statements and are not used │ │ independent; the UN figures corroborate the │
│ as levels. │ │ trajectory. │
│ │ │ │
│ https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/2922 │ │ https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/116821 │
│ 4-us-attacks-kill-12-in-iran-as-tehran-stri │ │ 7 │
│ kes-bases-in-jordan-bahrain-kuwait-and-iraq │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ .html │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DR Congo Ebola outbreak spreads to a sixth │ │ Trump Administration Imposes 50% Tariffs on │
│ province │ │ Certain Canadian Products in First Use of │
│ feature - Al Jazeera - tilt/tilt [COD] │ │ Section 338 │
│ │ │ feature - White & Case - unknown/unknown │
│ The Bundibugyo-strain outbreak reached │ │ [USA,CAN] │
│ Bas-Uele, its sixth province, with 2,128 │ │ │
│ deaths among 4,566 cases by Aug 13, up ~640 │ │ July 20 proclamations imposed 50% tariffs │
│ deaths in two weeks; Africa CDC warned it │ │ on ~$20B of Canadian vehicles, dairy, │
│ will last more than a year and become the │ │ alcohol and wood under Section 338 of the │
│ largest Ebola outbreak in the world without │ │ 1930 Tariff Act, its first use by any │
│ faster intervention, naming South Sudan │ │ president, effective Aug 19 and applying │
│ cross-border risk. Government counts, WHO │ │ even to USMCA-origin goods, alongside │
│ and Africa CDC corroborating the │ │ declared non-renewal of USMCA in its │
│ trajectory; first-ever Bundibugyo vaccines │ │ current form; Carney withheld retaliation │
│ still in trials. │ │ to keep talks alive while aluminum rose │
│ │ │ ~58%. Primary-document based; both │
│ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/13/dr │ │ countries' trade scores worsened to -8. │
│ -congo-ebola-outbreak-spreads-to-a-sixth-pr │ │ │
│ ovince │ │ https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/tru │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ mp-administration-imposes-50-tariffs-certai │
│ n-canadian-products-first-use-section │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Ebola outbreak in DRC: 3,360 cases and │ │ Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to │
│ 1,487 deaths as of 27 July │ │ revive Iran-US interim deal │
│ feature - ECDC - unknown/unknown [COD,UGA] │ │ feature - Reuters - wire/independent │
│ │ │ [IRN,USA,QAT,EGY,PAK] │
│ Confirmed deaths jumped from ~930 (July 21) │ │ │
│ to 1,487 and cases from ~2,300 to 3,360 by │ │ Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day │
│ July 27, with 48 of 140 health zones across │ │ ceasefire proposal to Tehran July 20 to │
│ five provinces affected, 100+ health │ │ revive the interim deal; Iran's FM │
│ workers infected and the Bundibugyo strain │ │ spokesman confirmed 'ideas from some │
│ outside the certified range of Zaire-strain │ │ mediators have been conveyed,' status under │
│ vaccines; a single day added 98 cases and │ │ consideration. The positive-skew exit the │
│ 50 deaths. DRC healthcare held at the -10 │ │ framework protected: Iran conflict held │
│ floor with confidence up to 0.9. │ │ near -9 (not floored). │
│ │ │ │
│ https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbrea │ │ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/m │
│ k-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda │ │ ediators-propose-10-day-ceasefire-revive-ir │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ an-us-interim-deal-senior-iranian-2026-07-2 │
│ 0/ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ OFAC rescinds Iranian sanctions relaxation │ │ US strikes Iran for third consecutive night │
│ following renewed conflict │ │ as blockade takes effect │
│ feature - Foley & Lardner - │ │ feature - CNN - unknown/independent │
│ unknown/independent [IRN,USA] │ │ [IRN,USA] │
│ │ │ │
│ OFAC's wind-down General License X1 expired │ │ CENTCOM struck military targets across Iran │
│ 12:01am EDT July 17 with no renewal, │ │ (Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu │
│ restoring full US secondary sanctions on │ │ Musa, Bandar Abbas) for a third consecutive │
│ Iranian oil transactions (no loading │ │ night July 12-14 to degrade Iran's ability │
│ permitted since July 7). Confirms Iran │ │ to attack commercial shipping. The │
│ sanctions_capital_controls held at the -10 │ │ ceasefire cycle broke pattern into the │
│ floor with the no-relief path locked in. │ │ war's largest escalation: drove Iran │
│ │ │ conflict_involvement near -8 to -9 (not │
│ https://www.foley.com/insights/publications │ │ floored; talks nominally alive). │
│ /2026/07/ofac-rescinds-iranian-sanctions-re │ │ │
│ laxation-following-renewed-conflict/ │ │ https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/14/world/live-n │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ ews/iran-war-trump │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Issuance of Amended Iran-related General │ │ How a glacier collapse became Nepal's │
│ License (GL X revoked, GL X1 wind-down) │ │ deadliest disaster │
│ feature - US Treasury OFAC - │ │ feature - New York Times - │
│ unknown/multilateral [IRN,USA] │ │ independent/independent [NPL] │
│ │ │ │
│ On July 7 OFAC revoked Iran General License │ │ Interactive causation analysis of the │
│ X (the June 22 60-day oil/petrochemical │ │ Nepal-Tibet glacier collapse and the │
│ waiver, originally to Aug 21) the same day │ │ resulting flood path. Glacier-collapse │
│ as the Hormuz attacks, replacing it with │ │ flooding is the direct physical mechanism │
│ narrow wind-down-only GL X1 expiring July │ │ of Himalayan warming, which is why the long │
│ 17. Erased the verified relief the last │ │ climate horizon moves further than the near │
│ pass scored: drove Iran │ │ one, and China separately warned of │
│ sanctions_capital_controls -8 to -9. │ │ additional glacier instability across the │
│ │ │ border. │
│ https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20 │ │ │
│ 260707 │ │ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ /01/world/asia/nepal-flash-floods-landslide │
│ .html │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ US strikes Iran missile launchers on Larak │ │ Nigeria launches hunt for hundreds of │
│ Island │ │ kidnapped mosque worshippers │
│ feature - The Week - unknown/unknown │ │ feature - Al Jazeera - tilt/tilt [NGA] │
│ [IRN,USA] │ │ │
│ │ │ Roughly 600 worshippers were abducted from │
│ The US struck Iranian missile launchers on │ │ mosques around Dekera village in Niger │
│ Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Aug │ │ State with about 30 killed, and Tinubu │
│ 31, breaking the de facto strike pause that │ │ ordered a rescue operation on Aug 25. │
│ had held since late July. Iran retaliated │ │ VERIFIED as a genuine, distinct 2026 event │
│ with ballistic missiles against US bases in │ │ in north-central Nigeria and specifically │
│ Jordan. The IRGC called the strike a │ │ NOT the recirculated 2025 Katsina mosque │
│ strategic and fatal error. Casualty figures │ │ attack flagged as a trap for this region. A │
│ carried in the piece are sourced to Iranian │ │ mass abduction on this scale from places of │
│ state media and are labeled as such rather │ │ worship is a step change in the reach of │
│ than used as fact. │ │ armed groups. │
│ │ │ │
│ https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/202 │ │ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/26/ni │
│ 6/08/31/us-strikes-iran-missile-launchers.h │ │ geria-launches-hunt-for-hundreds-of-kidnapp │
│ tml │ │ ed-mosque-worshippers │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces │ │ Gang massacre at Kenscoff church leaves at │
│ dissolve and integrate into Syrian military │ │ least 47 dead │
│ feature - Associated Press - │ │ feature - New York Times - │
│ wire/independent [SYR] │ │ independent/independent [HTI] │
│ │ │ │
│ The SDF formally dissolved and integrated │ │ A gang massacre at a church and │
│ into the Syrian military, announced by │ │ displacement site in Kenscoff killed at │
│ commander Mazloum Abdi at the presidential │ │ least 47 on Aug 25, prompting an emergency │
│ palace in Damascus on Aug 25. Reuters, AP │ │ UN Security Council session. Kenscoff sits │
│ and the FT all filed original reporting. │ │ in the hills above Port-au-Prince, so this │
│ This is the best-corroborated institutional │ │ is territorial expansion beyond the capital │
│ item in the region this window and removes │ │ and reverses the easing booked on │
│ the largest remaining non-state armed │ │ 2026-07-20 for Gang Suppression Force │
│ formation from the map. │ │ gains. │
│ │ │ │
│ https://apnews.com/article/syrian-democrati │ │ https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/world/am │
│ c-forces-dissolution-mazloum-abdi-1b7d210c9 │ │ ericas/haiti-massacre-kenscoff.html │
│ 6d2c608007b0411db25f453 │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Washington grapples with a National Guard │ │ Myanmar military escalates civilian │
│ deployment extended until 2029 │ │ killings, monitor warns │
│ feature - Washington Post - │ │ feature - NBC News / ACLED - │
│ independent/independent [USA] │ │ independent/independent [MMR] │
│ │ │ │
│ The DC National Guard deployment (5,000+ │ │ ACLED documents 12+ mass-killing incidents │
│ troops) passed one year and was extended │ │ by the military in H1 2026 (450+ civilians │
│ through the end of the term into 2029 │ │ dead) with intensified aerial bombing since │
│ rather than wound down, with prior │ │ the March command restructure; the junta │
│ deployments in LA, Chicago, Memphis, │ │ holds ~21% of territory against ~42% │
│ Minneapolis and New Orleans and St. Louis │ │ resistance-held, with ~5.2M displaced and a │
│ and New York floated next. Normalization of │ │ loyalist installed as commander-in-chief │
│ standing domestic military presence; │ │ after an opposition-banning election. │
│ political stability worsened -4 to -5. │ │ Gold-standard conflict monitor; confidence │
│ │ │ up. │
│ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202 │ │ │
│ 6/08/10/national-guard-deployment-washingto │ │ https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/myanmar- │
│ n-trump-crime/f8d62866-94ab-11f1-9ef9-1be72 │ │ military-escalates-civilian-killings-monito │
│ 2184483_story.html │ │ r-warns-rcna589385 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ US launches another round of attacks on │ │ US and Saudi Arabia strike Tehran-backed │
│ Iran │ │ militia sites in eastern Iraq │
│ feature - Al Jazeera - tilt/tilt │ │ feature - Associated Press - │
│ [IRN,USA,OMN] │ │ wire/independent [IRQ,USA,SAU,IRN] │
│ │ │ │
│ CENTCOM launched a 'heavy wave' of strikes │ │ Joint US-Saudi airstrikes hit militia │
│ on Iranian command centers, missile and │ │ logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq │
│ drone factories and a coastal surveillance │ │ July 29, killing at least 20 fighters │
│ site overnight July 29-30, ending a roughly │ │ including 6 Iranian advisers per two Iraqi │
│ five-night pause; IRNA reported 3 killed on │ │ militia officials, in response to militia │
│ Qeshm Island (state figure, direction │ │ drone attacks on Saudi Arabia; hours │
│ only). The 10-day mediator proposal was │ │ earlier Iran fired ballistic missiles at │
│ never accepted; Iran conflict held near -9, │ │ Jordan-based US forces. Iraq's soil now │
│ not floored, on the still-live mediation │ │ struck by both sides: Iraq conflict held │
│ channels. │ │ near -9; drove Saudi conflict near -6 to -7 │
│ │ │ and US conflict near -6 to -7. │
│ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/30/us │ │ │
│ -launches-another-round-of-attacks-on-iran │ │ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 7/29/iran-war-us-hormuz-strait-july-29-2026 │
│ / │
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